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Zephyr Real Estate – Marin Awards Roth, O'Briens, Davis and Spiro Marin Team

November 21, 2016 By rothrealestate

Monday, November 21st, 2016
Melody Foster
Marketwired (SOURCE: Zephyr Real Estate)

Roth, O'Briens, Davis and Spiro

L-R upper: JJ Davis, George Stratigos, Dorothy MacDougald and Spiro Stratigos L-R lower: Deirdre and David O’Brien and Andrew Roth

SAN FRANCISCO, CA–(Marketwired – November 21, 2016) – Zephyr Real Estate has announced the Third Quarter Sales Awards for its Marin office.

Highest Sales Volume Award-Individual Agent went to Andrew Roth with $7.18 million. Roth, always in the top rankings, has a strong background in both commercial and residential real estate. He is partnered with Jenn Pfeiffer, a long-time Marin resident and Realtor, and together they form the Domain Marin team. He represents clients on both sides of the bridge in San Francisco and Marin.

In addition, Andrew Roth received the Largest Sale Representing Buyers Award with a $2.22 million transaction.

Highest Sales Volume Award-Agent Team went to David O’Brien and Deirdre O’Brien with $8.69 million. They are consistent top producers, and David belongs to the Top Agent Network and the Marin Realtor Business Group. His many certifications and designations include Graduate Realtors Institute, Accredited Buyer’s Representative, Senior Real Estate Specialist, and he is endorsed by the Charfen Institute as a Certified Distressed Property Expert.

David O’Brien also claimed the Largest Sale Representing Sellers Award with a $2.28 million transaction.

Highest Number of Transactions-Individual Agent was awarded to J.J. Davis with a total of five. Davis utilizes an aggressive and thorough marketing strategy for his listings. A former professional athlete, Davis has played for both the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts, and brings that same driving force to his clients.

Highest Number of Transactions-Agent Team went to Spiro Marin with a total of nine. This team is comprised of Spiro Stratigos, Dorothy MacDougald and George Stratigos. Together their skills create a powerhouse team that is a forerunner in the industry, covering all the bases for their clientele.

“We congratulate David, Deidre, Andrew, J.J., Spiro, Dorothy and George on yet another excellent quarter,” commented Erinn Millar, Sales Manager at the Marin office. “They are true professionals in their field, and valuable members of our team.”

About Zephyr Real Estate

Founded in 1978, Zephyr Real Estate is San Francisco’s largest independent real estate firm with nearly $2.3 billion in gross sales and a current roster of more than 300 full-time agents. Zephyr’s highly-visited website has earned two web design awards, including the prestigious Interactive Media Award. Zephyr Real Estate is a member of the international relocation network, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World; the luxury real estate network, Who’s Who in Luxury Real Estate; global luxury affiliate, Mayfair International; and local luxury marketing association, the Luxury Marketing Council of San Francisco. Zephyr has six offices in San Francisco, a brand new office in Greenbrae, and two brokerage affiliates in Sonoma County, all strategically positioned to serve a large customer base throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. For more information, visit www.ZephyrRE.com.

Image Available: http://www.marketwire.com/library/MwGo/2016/11/18/11G122662/Images/Roth-Davis-TeamOBrien-TeamSpiro-fcb2f660520eacfa930e7ff951df9b6e.jpg

CONTACT INFORMATION

  • Contact:
    Melody Foster
    Zephyr Real Estate
    San Francisco, CA
    415.426.3203
    Email contact

Filed Under: Buyers, Featured Article, Recent News, Sellers

10 Things No One Tells You About… San Francisco

November 8, 2016 By rothrealestate

Saturday, October 29th, 2016
Amanda Wowk
thepointsguy.com

img-san-francisco

The City by the Bay has been sung about, lusted after, and touted for its many charms; so many that even the most frequent of travelers could miss the city’s hidden gems. These 10 tips will get you one step closer to exploring San Francisco like a local.

Where to Find the Best Chinese Food

Nestled in the Sunset District — an area of San Francisco that, ironically, rarely sees the sun — you’ll find the authentic, delicious, made-fresh-in-house cuisine of King of Noodles. While I learned about this place by watching Anthony Bourdain’s show “The Layover,” it’s nice to see the fame hasn’t gone to their heads and the restaurant is, thankfully, predominantly populated by locals so you know it’s legit. Wondering what else should you order besides a noodle dish? A quick search on Instagram will tell you: the Shanghai dumplings are not only an absolute treat, they also photograph exceptionally well.

king

See San Francisco’s Longest-Running Musical Revue

When it comes to theater, there’s only one true, quintessential San Francisco staple, “Beach Blanket Babylon,” and you won’t want to miss the zany antics, satirical jabs and gravity-defying hats of this modern-day fairytale. Buy your tickets online in advance and get there right when the doors open — your ticket only guarantees your section, not your seat, so if you’re in a group and want to sit together, arrive early.

Big hats and big laughs are in store for you at Beach Blanket Babylon. Image courtesy of the show’s Facebook page.

Have a Drink Where Jack Kerouac Once Did

On the road but not too far away, you’ll find the bar Vesuvio Cafe, made famous by the Beat Era master himself, Jack Kerouac. Head to this spot after a long day of sightseeing, or after seeing Beach Blanket Bingo (the venue is just a few blocks away), and enjoy a dirty martini while you take in the curiously cool decor. Jack would want you to.

Grab a drink at this cool and quirky bar in SF’s North Beach neighborhood. Image courtesy of Vesuvio Cafe’s Facebook page.

Don’t Rely on Public Transit to Get Home After a Late Night

After a fun night out on the town, you’re probably wondering how to get back to your hotel or Airbnb, especially since most of SF’s public buses and trains stop running around midnight and don’t pick things up again until about 4:00am. While Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) and CalTrain don’t cover the ground you’d hope for (especially if you’re expecting the frequency or coverage of a NYC or London transit system), the good news is SF is big on ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft — even if you’re staying on the Peninsula, Uber can get you home quickly and cheaply.

Bay Area Rapid Transit gets you around til a certain point, but Uber and Lyft are still your best bet. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Venture South to the Peninsula

The city of San Francisco is located at the top of the San Francisco Peninsula, but only the city of SF is considered SF, of course, whereas everything to the south is referred to by the locals as “The Peninsula” — with a capital P. Think of it as the ‘burbs — the very expensive, very well-connected ‘burbs. And if you’re relegated to the ‘burbs during your vacation, know that there are fun spots there, too. Check out the charming TasteVin wine bar in San Carlos, which serves a variety of flights and delicious tapas-style bites. Or, if you’re staying in Redwood City, head to the Mistral Restaurant and Bar for waterfront views and delicious seafood dishes.

If you’re staying just outside the city, sample California’s best wines at TasteVin. Image courtesy of their Facebook page.

Take a Day Trip to Carmel-by-the-Sea

Thinking of venturing further out? About a two-hour drive south of San Francisco is Carmel-by-the-Sea, where you’ll find beaches and small town restaurants, pubs and shops. In short, this storybook town will keep you busy for hours. If you’re looking for the perfect lunch spot, visit La Bicyclette, a charming Italian-French eatery that offers a delicious spread of cheeses, pizzas, and salads, among other treats — they also sell half bottles of wine so you can sample more of the local stuff at a fraction of the price. If you’d rather save your sipping for later, buy a bottle of wine at a local wine shop and head to the beach to catch the sunset. Just remember to bundle up, as the beach can get pretty breezy as the sun fades.

SF City-dwellers love to escape to the picturesque town of Carmel. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Visit the Historic Carmel Mission

While you’re in Carmel-by-the-Sea, stop by the San Carlos Borromeo de Carmelo Mission, also known as the Carmel Mission, a beautiful place to look back at California’s religious history, explore the stunning basilica and wander its perfectly manicured grounds. If you’re a photographer — or a bride looking for a picturesque backdrop for your wedding photos— this place offers the feel of old world Spain via Mexico, without ever having to leave the states.

Visit the San Carlos Borromeo de Carmelo Mission for its beauty and its history. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Eat Healthy While Cheering on the Home Team

Locals love their San Francisco Giants, but did you know that sports fans also love their greens? AT&T Park, the team’s home stadium, has introduced The Garden, a place where fans can enjoy healthy meals and watch the game. Visitors can also explore The Garden’s grounds, including its vegetable and herb sections. The best part: all greens grown here are used by the stadium’s restaurants — it doesn’t get any more locally-sourced than that!

Visit AT&T Park and have a healthy meal in its in-stadium gardens. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Go For a Run

San Francisco offers a multitude of options for visiting runners. For starters, the iconic Golden Gate Bridge isn’t just for fun photo opportunities — or, you know, actual transportation needs — the parks surrounding the bridge’s outer limits offer great running trails to get your sweat on. Or, in Golden Gate Park, designed similarly to New York’s Central Park (but not located adjacent to the bridge, as I learned the hard way), runners can make a scenic and uninterrupted five-mile loop within the green space.

Scenic paths for runners exist all over the city. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Take Part in a Legendary Footrace 

Speaking of running, San Francisco is home to the oldest consecutively-run annual footrace in the world, Bay to Breakers. This 12k race takes place the third Sunday in May each year. Registration for next year’s opens on October 28, so runners, if this race is on your bucket list, make sure you sign up early before the price increases. This also leaves you plenty of time to plan your costume, as this is also one of the world’s best-dressed races — would you really expect anything less from this city?

Race through San Francisco during this iconic race. Image courtesy of Bay to Breakers’ Facebook page.

Have you ever been to San Francisco? What are your favorite things to do there?

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Filed Under: Advice & Resources, Recent News, San Francisco

Investors seeing farmland as safer bet than stocks Wary of fluctuations on Wall Street, more wealthy Americans, private funds and foreigners are putting money into parcels of cornfields, fruit orchards and other U.S. agricultural products.

September 22, 2010 By rothrealestate

By P.J. Huffstutter, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Kern County, Calif. — As investors tire of Wall Street’s roller coaster, more of them are plowing their money into land — farmland.

Few people understand this shift better than farm manager Carl Evers.

On a recent morning, Evers steered his pickup truck through a Central California almond grove, his drawling sales pitch at the ready. Evers is co-founder of Farmland Management Services, which runs about 30,000 acres of nut groves, fruit orchards and wine grape vines for a Boston investment firm. Sunburned and stocky, tugging down his wide-brimmed hat, he talked about how farmland — and the food it produces — is the safer bet these troubled days.

“You want to throw your money into something you can’t touch?” said Evers, 50. “Or do you want to put your money here, into soil and sun, into food that feeds people around the world?”

It’s the fourth time this year Evers has wandered through these trees and given his spiel to pension fund managers, hedge-fund operators and hungry investors on behalf of Hancock Agricultural Investment Group. He’s reeled it off many more times over the phone.

Farmland has become hot. Average U.S. farm real estate prices — including the value of land and buildings — have nearly doubled in the last decade to $2,140 an acre, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Wells Fargo, the nation’s top agricultural business lender in total dollar volume, said demand prompted it to increase farm lending 12% from 2008 to 2009. Since the recession began in December 2007, financial analysts say, agricultural investments have easily outperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

Wealthy Americans and private funds alike are gobbling up Washington apple orchards, Illinois cornfields and Louisiana sugar plantations. So are foreigners. In California, investors from countries including Spain, Switzerland, China, Egypt and Iran collectively boosted their holdings 2.5% from February 2007 to February 2009 to 1.08 million acres — about 5% of the state’s total farmland. Overseas, U.S. and other investors are snapping up tens of millions of hectares of farmland in Africa, Central America and Eastern Europe.

Such investments generally involve a group of people who come together in a company or group of firms, pool their money and purchase parcels of land through a corporate structure. (Minimum investments can start around $25,000 and often require a commitment of at least six years.) After purchasing the land — whose value historically appreciates — it is usually then turned over to a farmer or a management firm, which handles day-to-day operations. If all goes well, investors can receive rent, proceeds from crop or livestock sales, or some combination of both.

For some, there is a sense of romanticism and relief at the idea of putting money into something as tangible as dirt.

“It’s something people understand,” said Jeff Conrad, president of Hancock Agricultural Investment Group. The enterprise manages about $1.3 billion of agricultural real estate for institutional investors, including public and corporate pension funds. “It’s something you can touch, feel, see, visit.”

Investors also understand that land is a finite commodity. The amount of arable land worldwide is dwindling, while the world’s population is forecast to jump to more than 9 billion by 2050 from 6.9 billion today. That has water-strapped countries eager to establish secure food supplies and bolster biofuel production. Fast-growing economies such as China are stepping up food imports to feed a burgeoning middle class.

As a result, U.S. exports of meat, grains, nuts and other farm products are surging. Overall, federal officials estimate that U.S. farmers will ship $107.5 billion in agricultural products overseas in fiscal 2010 — the second-highest amount ever, according to the USDA.

Frustration with the stock market persuaded Dr. Stephen Rivard to bet on farms. The physician who lives in the Chicago area invested heavily in stocks, only to cringe as the value of his portfolio shrank 42% over the last decade. When a friend launched Midwest Organic Farm Management and asked him to bet on a farm, Rivard reached for his wallet.

As the country’s economy suffered the worst decline since the Great Depression, he bought into more farms: So far, he’s put $300,000 into three Illinois organic operations, including one called Two Roads Farms.

“My only regret so far is that I didn’t invest more sooner,” said Rivard, 57.

The payoff has been mixed. Three years ago, commodity prices jumped and Rivard enjoyed a 15% return on an annualized basis. But last season’s harvest at Two Roads was a dud. Some of the fields were overgrazed by cattle. Heavy rains flooded the land. A lack of nitrogen in the soil made the corn stalks puny.

This year is more promising. D.D. Burlin, a Chicago-area stay-at-home mother, sank $25,000 from her savings into Two Roads for financial reasons and social concerns over how the food her family eats is produced. She recently toured her investment and wandered among the emerald-green fields of soybeans and oats.

“If people are willing to pay more for organic food, why can’t you make money by doing the right thing?” said Burlin, 42.

By its very nature, farming is risky. The investments aren’t liquid. Profits can fluctuate with weather, commodity prices and politics. Large parcels of good land can be hard to find. What is out there doesn’t come up for sale very often.

With U.S. opportunities limited, investors are looking overseas. The result has been a land rush, particularly in the wake of the food price crisis earlier this decade. The World Bank reported this month that the number of large-scale farmland deals in 2009 amounted to about 45 million hectares, compared with an average of less than 4 million hectares each year from 1998 through 2008.

The report found that about half the 406 land acquisitions in Ethiopia and the 405 deals in Mozambique from 2004 to 2009 came from foreign investors. Foreign investment in Sudanese agricultural land was expected to increase fivefold by 2014.

Banks, universities and investment firms are closing some of the biggest deals.

Optima Fund Management, a New York fund, plans to acquire about 10,000 acres of Arizona farmland and California vineyards by year’s end. Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management in Australia — which has invested in dairy, forestry and more than 7 million acres of land — is launching a second fund that may expand into Brazil. Pharos Financial Group, a firm backed by financier George Soros and based in Moscow, created an agriculture-focused private-equity fund in November and is scouting farms in Asia and Africa.

Such deals have sprouted a backlash and raised concerns of speculators becoming wealthy at the environmental and economic expense of local communities. John Peck, executive director of the anti-corporation advocacy group Family Farm Defenders, said institutional investors could distort global food production patterns by planting crops for profitability rather than nutrition.

Such critics also wonder whether investors have forgotten the cautionary tale of the 1980s U.S. farm crisis. A combination of low prices, high interest rates and plummeting land values devastated rural America. Thousands of family farms fell into foreclosure and scores of farm banks collapsed.

“Could we see the ’80s all over again? Absolutely,” said agricultural economist Michael Swanson, of Wells Fargo’s Agricultural Industries Group. “The combination of high crop prices and ultra-low interest rates has farmers bidding historically high prices. It will end very badly for some of them.”

Burlin isn’t swayed.

“Right now,” she said, “this still feels safer.”

Filed Under: Investors, Recent News

Some Agents Inflate Estimate to Get Listing

September 29, 2009 By rothrealestate

Dian Hymer
sfgate.com

How would you like to find yourself in this situation? You need to sell your home, so you make appointments with three real estate agents. Each prepares a marketing proposal, including a recommended list price for your home.

You list with the agent who recommends the highest price. Before you get your home on the market, the agent changes her mind and encourages you to list at a lower price. Then, after months on the market without a sale, your agent recommends a drastic reduction to a price that’s in line with what the other two agents originally suggested.

During this time period, the market softens and your listing expires unsold. Had you listed at a price that was right for the market when you initially put your home on the market, it probably would have sold.

The moral: Watch out for a listing agent who recommends a high list price for your home just to get the listing. In the real estate business, this practice is referred to as buying a listing.

To guard against it, ask the agent to give you an approximate selling price range for your home. The agent should back this up with comparable sales information. If an agent insists he or she can get you a higher price than anyone else can, ask how the agent plans to accomplish this feat.

Even if your home is unique, an agent should try to justify the price. After all, if a listing sells for that price, an appraiser is going to have to justify the price for the buyer’s lender. Your home might not appraise at such a high price unless there are comparable sales to support the price. This could jeopardize a sale.

Home seller tip: If you suspect that an agent is trying to buy your listing, ask for a list of all the listings the agent handled in the last couple of years. Ask for the list price, the sale price and how long it took each listing to sell. Is there a wide disparity between the list and sale prices? How many listings taken by the agent never sold?

Don’t succumb to an agent who puts on pressure by insisting that you must list immediately or you’ll miss the market. This is rarely the case because markets usually don’t change drastically overnight.

Beware of an agent who makes misleading statements about the competition. Agents who are Realtors (members of the National Association of Realtors) subscribe to a code of ethics that forbids knowingly making misleading statements about fellow Realtors or their business practices. If a Realtor uses this tactic, it could be a red flag that the agent is less than ethical.

The agent you select will be your personal representative to the outside world. Keep this in mind when you’re making your choice.

Be sure to ask agents you interview if they’ll be taking a vacation during the time your home is on the market. If so, make sure that a competent and reliable agent will cover your listing while your agent is away. It’s not a crime for an agent to take time off, but it’s bad business if an agent doesn’t inform clients and simply disappears.

With rare exceptions, it’s best to use a listing agent who is a local specialist. Some agents will take listings out of their market area.

The closing: For best results, list with an agent who has extensive experience in your area and who is well known and respected by other agents in your market area.

Filed Under: Preparing to Sell, Recent News, Sellers

Top Home Sellers' Markets

September 29, 2009 By rothrealestate

By Matt Woolsey
Forbes.com

If you’ve got property for sale, chances are you’re in a bind: Nationwide, prices for existing homes keep on falling and new home constructions started a few years ago continue to roll off the conveyer belt, upping inventory.

On top of that, the fallout from subprime lending, the subsequent tightening of credit and lending standards, and the recent rise in long-term treasury yields has shrunk the pool of eligible buyers. Feel like you can’t catch a break? You’re not alone.

Not every market follows national trends and despite the industry’s overall problems, there are still cities where sellers have the upper hand.

In Pictures: Top Home Sellers’ Markets

The best way to judge a buyer’s vs. a seller’s market is a simple supply vs. demand analysis of housing stock: At the current rate of sales, how long would it take to sell off the inventory whether single family homes or condos? If that measure comes back high, houses sit on the market longer. If it is low, the market is tightening. This is good news for the seller.

Related Stories
America’s Most Overpriced Real Estate Markets

What $1 Million Buys In Homes Across The U.S.

The Methodology
To measure inventory glut, we used Moody’s Economy.com and National Association of Realtors data that tracked a market’s current sales rate by projecting the amount of time it would take to sell off the excess housing stock at the current rate of sales.

We also looked at the change in sales rate over the last year to measure the relative tightening or loosening of the market. Finally, a measure of price stability was applied so as to prevent the list from being a rundown of upstart markets.

The measurements left out a few cities that lacked comprehensive data. Seattle, for example, has incredibly strong market fundamentals–the lowest vacancy rate of major metros at 0.9% and is a small geographic area not conducive to overproduction. It is a good seller’s market, but for tracking what we were after, Seattle data was incomplete for our analysis.

Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi points out that the best-performing markets are those that had barriers to over production during the housing boom.

The Top Tier
In the case of San Francisco, which ranked second on our list, it’s an issue of geography: There is little space for growth or new development and the local government doesn’t do much to incentivize new construction.

Strong in-migration stemming from local economic strength is another good way to keep up demand here. New houses being built isn’t a problem if there are new people moving to town.

This scenario is also playing out in Raleigh, N.C., the No. 1 city on our list. Moderate growth and disciplined building over the last five years prevented the market from developing a significant glut. Additionally, a strong local economy has helped contribute to the city’s healthy 1.6% vacancy rate.

What’s more, the rate of home sales against home inventory was healthy in Raleigh; in this category, it ranked fifth best of big cities, according to Moody’s metrics. Even though the market has low vacancy to begin with and displayed strong construction restraint during the housing boom, Raleigh still has the eighth best rate of tightening.

Similarly, strong in-migration and local economic pop carried Austin as a seller’s market. It finished fourth overall in sales rate to inventory size and has had the fifth-best home price appreciation figures of the large markets Moody’s measured. Its mediocre 14th best market tightening ranking can be attributed, in large part, to its small inventory excess. A 1.5% vacancy rate, like Austin’s, is where the national average stood during the most recent housing boom. In other words, that low a vacancy rate indicates a housing market at close to full capacity.

While the market isn’t going gangbusters for investment, sellers in these markets are faring much better than their counterparts across the country.

In Pictures: Top Home Sellers’ Markets

Filed Under: Recent News

Refer a Friend and Score Dinner for Two at Gary Danko!

September 15, 2009 By rothrealestate

Refer a Friend and Score Dinner for Two at Gary Danko!

Referrals are the life-blood of my business, and I am honored every time clients refer me to their friends and family who are seeking help in the San Francisco real estate market.

To show my appreciation, I’m offering a complimentary dinner for two at the world famous Gary Danko if I end up representing your referral on the purchase or sale of property.

So, please keep me in mind should you learn of anyone who’s contemplating a purchase or sale in San Francisco – I, and your tummy, will truly appreciate it!

* Eligible referrals must be new clients who have never been represented by Andrew Roth on the sale or purchase of property, and who have not previously contacted Andrew through www.rothrealestate.com, phone, e-mail, or in person. To qualify for this offer, eligible referrals must be introduced to Andrew by December 31, 2009, and must have Andrew represent them on the sale or purchase of property before December 31, 2010. The referrer will receive a $300 gift certificate to Gary Danko – redeemable for two prix fixe meals, tax, gratuity, and a bottle or two of great wine! Any cost over $300 is the responsibility of the referrer.

Filed Under: Recent News

7 Things to Know About Mortgage Rates in 2009

January 15, 2009 By rothrealestate

A look at where rates on home loans are headed in the new year.

Luke Mullins
U.S. News & World Report
January 15, 2009

It wasn’t too long ago that mortgage rates were expected to move sharply higher in the coming months thanks to rattled investors and mounting inflation. But while falling home prices and jittery financial markets have done little to assuage investor fears, a number of recent developments have combined to create a decidedly optimistic mortgage-rate outlook for 2009. “The preponderance of forces that would typically operate on mortgage rates — the economic backdrop, the inflation backdrop and, in this case, government policy — are all pointing towards lower interest rates,” says Mike Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research.

Rates have already become increasingly attractive. The average national rate for 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 5.57% in the week of Dec. 5, from 6.61% just seven weeks earlier, according to HSH Associates. Here’s a look at where mortgage rates are headed in the new year, the forces that will be influencing them, and how consumers can take advantage of the trends.

There are 3 main factors behind the outlook:

1. 2009 rate outlook: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates should begin 2009 at around 5.5%, says Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates. From there, they will “wax and wane” in the 5.5% to 6% range, before closing out the year somewhere between 6% and 6.25%. “That’s still very attractive,” he says. “There is no reason to think that rates are going to go up so substantially so as to erode the marketplace.” (However, should the economic outlook improve more quickly than expected, mortgage rates could trend higher, Gumbinger says. In addition, new government programs unveiled next year could alter the projection.)

2. Inflationary easing: With the global economy headed for what many expect to be a nasty recession, the inflationary pressures that looked so menacing in the summer have quickly dissipated. The government reported in November that the core consumer price index — a measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices — decreased by 0.1% in October from the previous month, a sharp decline from the 0.3% monthly increase posted in July. At the same time, crude oil has plummeted from more than $140 a barrel in the summer to less than $50 a barrel in December. When inflation eases, yields on government bonds—such as the 10-year Treasury note — tend to drift lower. And because 30-year fixed mortgage rates typically track the yields on 10-year Treasuries, the diminished inflationary outlook has helped pull rates down. “The sudden collapse in prices has changed things dramatically,” Gumbinger says. “That was really one of the linchpins as to why rates finally did fall.”

3. Recession: The National Bureau of Economic Research recently announced that the United States did indeed enter a recession in December 2007. While predictions as to the duration and depth of the recession vary, economists at Goldman Sachs recently revised their original forecast in the face of deteriorating economic news. “This deepens and extends the expected recession, bringing the drop in GDP close to the decline seen in 1982 (2.3% in our forecast versus 2.7% then),” the economists said in the report.

The recession is likely to put additional downward pressure on mortgage rates in two key ways. First, the economic contraction will work to stifle inflation. And second, it will support the ongoing “flight to quality,” whereby investors move cash from more risky investments — such as stocks — to ultrasafe government securities. Such forces are already bringing yields on government bonds sharply lower. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 2.66% during the week of Dec. 5, from 4.02% just seven weeks earlier. “You are seeing nominal Treasury yields at new multidecade and, in some cases, all-time lows,” Larson says. “[This] should add downward pressure on mortgage rates as well.”

4. Government action: The outlook for mortgage rates has also been influenced by recently announced government initiatives. In late November, the Federal Reserve announced plans to buy up hundreds of billions of dollars in debt and mortgage-backed securities from government-controlled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan is designed to reduce Fannie’s and Freddie’s financing costs, thereby enabling them to pass savings on to individuals in the form of lower mortgage rates. The Fed has since suggested it may begin buying long-term Treasury bonds, which could bring 10-year Treasury yields even lower. These announcements triggered an immediate drop in mortgage rates and could continue to keep rates low in the coming months. And while the massive bailout initiatives that governments around the world are now undertaking will undoubtedly lead to renewed inflationary pressures, this impact is unlikely to materialize until 2010, Gumbinger says.

5. Housing market turmoil: The decline in home prices, coupled with rising mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, has prompted investors to demand higher returns on their investments in securities backed by home loans. As a result, the spread — or the difference — between the yields on 10-year Treasuries and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has widened significantly. This spread expanded to nearly 3 percentage points in the week of Dec. 5, from 1.5 percentage points in the first week of June 2007, before the credit crisis struck. And with home prices expected to continue falling throughout at least the first half of 2009 — and mortgage delinquencies accelerating — this “risk premium” should remain elevated. “We’re not going to get back to the same tight relationship between the 10-year [Treasury] bond and fixed mortgage rates any time soon,” says Tom Vanderwell, a mortgage lender from Michigan. But despite this upward pressure, Vanderwell says he expects mortgage rates to finish 2009 somewhere between 6% and 6.25%.

6. Lending standards: Although mortgage rates are likely to remain attractive next year, not everyone will be able to take advantage of them. Many homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages who would like to refinance into more affordable, fixed-rate home loans have negative equity, meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. As a result, they will not be eligible for refinancing. Meanwhile, those looking to purchase a home will face a credit environment that is significantly tighter than in the housing boom days. In order to access today’s most attractive rates, borrowers will have to be able to document their income, make a down payment and have good credit. Mark Hanson, a managing director who handles real-estate and finance research at the Field Check Group, says there aren’t a great deal of potential homebuyers in the market today “who have jobs, two years of tax returns, [who] are qualified, and have saved a large enough down payment.”

7. No rush: But even though rates may be low today, Larson says qualified borrowers shouldn’t feel pressured to see their lender immediately. “This is a lot less of a situation where you’ve got a temporary spike lower that if you don’t get out the door in 48 hours, these rates are going to be gone,” Larson says. “This is more of a longer-lasting trend where — sure, you will see some fluctuations — but that the trend in rates is probably lower for a number of months.”


Filed Under: Recent News

Spotlight on Bright Side of Mortgage Market

October 18, 2008 By rothrealestate

It would be a big stretch to label housing the sunny side of the market at the moment, but there’s a lot more light there than in most other financial sectors because there is no shortage of money for home mortgages.

Kenneth Harney
Seattle Times

Credit squeeze, credit freeze, credit-system seizures: Everybody knows how severe and painful the global financial breakdown has been, with banks unwilling to lend even to other banks.

But what about mortgages and real estate? Can you still get a home loan with less than a 20 or 30 percent down payment? Or with a credit score below 720?

Absolutely. It would be a big stretch to label housing the sunny side of the market at the moment, but there’s a lot more light there than in most other financial sectors. Consider these facts:

• There is no shortage of money for home mortgages, no freezing of credit to purchase or refinance a house. Why? Because the mortgage market effectively has been federalized — at least for the time being.

More than 90 percent of new loans now are being made through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance program, plus Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHA is owned by the federal government, and Fannie and Freddie are operating under federal conservatorship.

All three have unfettered access to global capital markets at rock-bottom costs because their borrowings are fully guaranteed by the Treasury.

Ginnie Mae, which is FHA’s pipeline to the bond market, recorded an all-time high of $29 billion in new mortgage-backed securities issued in August.

• Loan terms and credit underwriting standards have been toughened up, but you can still put down 3 percent (3.5 percent after Jan. 1) on an FHA-insured mortgage and 5 percent on certain Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan programs with private mortgage insurance.

FHA’s credit standards are generous and forgiving; the agency exists to help people with less-than-spotless credit histories. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have raised their credit-score requirements over the past year, but buyers and refinances with scores in the upper 600s can still qualify for loans having reasonable rates and fees.

• Despite the global financial system’s quakes, mortgage rates not only remain low by historical standards but have actually declined.

For the week ending Oct. 8, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, average 30-year fixed rates nationally dropped to 5.99 percent, and 15-year mortgages averaged 5.71 percent. Freddie Mac said 30-year rates dropped to 5.94 percent.

• Maximum loan amounts through FHA, Fannie and Freddie in high-cost local markets on the West and East coasts, such as Seattle, continue to be $729,750 through December. In January, the high-cost maximum is projected to dip to approximately $625,000.

• Home prices — pushed by foreclosures and short sales — have rolled back to 2003 and 2004 levels or lower in many former boom markets.

As a result, buyers are coming off the sidelines, making offers and writing contracts. The pending home-sales index jumped by 7.4 percent based on purchase contracts signed in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The heaviest increases — pointing to higher closed sales in the coming two to three months — were in California, Florida, Nevada and the Washington, D.C., area.

Housing and mortgage leaders say consumer worries about the stock market have obscured positive developments in real estate, where pricing pain and downsizing have been facts of life for 2-½ years.

David Kittle, president and CEO of Principle Wholesale Lending and incoming chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, says, “the mortgage market has never shut down” despite the global financial crisis.

Money is “clearly available as long as you can qualify for it” with at least a modest down payment and decent credit history,” Kittle says.

Matt Vernon, a national retail mortgage-sales executive for Bank of America, said, “We’ve got more than enough liquidity” to handle mortgage demand. “We are open for business.”

Most of the bank’s production is now funded through FHA, Fannie and Freddie.

On the front lines, mortgage-company owner Jeff Lipes, president of Family Choice Mortgage near Hartford, Conn., says: “I don’t think consumers really know how free-flowing capital is right now in the residential mortgage market. There are no shortages, no breakdowns. People ought to be aware of that.”

Bottom line: Scary as the news has been about stocks and banks, this is not the case for mortgages.

Besides shopping at large national lenders, check with local banks and credit unions that may be originating loans for their own portfolios — not for Fannie, Freddie or FHA. Many of them are healthy, have cash to lend and may be surprisingly competitive on terms and rates with the big boys.

Kenneth R. Harney: [email protected]

Filed Under: Recent News

Does it Pay to Stage?

August 18, 2007 By rothrealestate

By Andrew Roth
Roth Real Estate

Should you consider staging your home before selling?

The answer to this question depends on a number of variables. Foremost to remember, however, is that a buyer’s initial impression of your home, and often the decision to buy, is made in the first 90 seconds. What’s more, studies indicate that only 10% of buyers can envision what an empty house will look like when decorated.

Another aspect to think about when considering staging your home is whether most homes in your area are staged. In markets like San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, staging tends to be the norm. With so many homes getting the beauty treatment, a non-staged home may seem shabby by comparison. Remember, home buying decisions are often emotional ones, and can be driven by gut feelings, initial impressions, and even by the way a home smells. Worn furniture, unusual colors, and dated accessories can detract from that initial impression.

An empty house can also appear to lack soul, vitality, and warmth, while a well-staged home can give the appearance of sophistication, brightness, and homey-ness. It’s all about creating a mood, and moods definitely influence buyers’ decisions. As much as we’d love for buyers to have the ability to envision a house when it’s fixed up, it’s infinitely better to serve that vision on a platter.

While not inexpensive – typically running between $1000 for a very light pass to $10,000 or more for a large, luxury house – staging can generally increase the selling price anywhere from 2 to 10%. Staged homes also tend to sell more quickly than non-staged ones, in part because they draw more people to the open house. These days, before deciding to make the trip to an open house, most buyers peruse photos on the Internet. If your home isn’t staged, it may not make the open-house cut.

How Staging Works

Technically, staging is anything you do to improve the appearance of your home prior to selling it. Staging can run the gamut – from cleaning and minor changes in furniture and accessories, to a full-scale remodeling, with new sinks, tiles, paint colors and gardens. Prior to making any changes, a professional stager will typically come out to your house for a consultation and run-through. Some of the items stagers may suggest include the following:

– Remove clutter

– Remove old/excess furniture and replace with new

– Replace existing artwork

– Replace ceiling lights with brighter, energy-efficient ones

– Stain kitchen cabinets

– Install new door pulls

– Replace kitchen and bathroom countertops and tiles

– Reface tubs and sinks

– Bring in new plants

– Install mirrors

– Change wall paint

– Plant outdoor flowers

– Wash windows

– Install skylights

– Pressure wash exterior of house

– Repair wall cracks

– Place new books on shelves and magazines on tables

– Bring in new bathroom accessories, such as towels, moisturizers, and soap

– Place new pillows, carpets, and drapes in living room

Following the initial staging consultation, you will receive an itemized list of upgrades/changes recommended for your home. You may choose to make as many or as few alterations as you choose. A good stager will never pressure you to make changes with which you feel uncomfortable.

All in all, staging your home does make sense, both in terms of the speed of sale, and the amount of the selling price. Moreover, in today’s housing market, where in many areas, there is more supply than typical, buyers tend to be drawn to the houses that have been beautifully redone. So unless your home already boasts an impeccable décor, staging could very well bring higher offers and faster selling times than you had envisioned – a definite plus when it comes to investing your money!

Filed Under: Preparing to Sell, Recent News, Sellers

Mission Bay Home Run – Burst of Building to Add More Than 1,500 Units

April 4, 2005 By rothrealestate

By Lizette Wilson
San Francisco Business Times

Mission Bay is getting taller.

Three residential towers are under construction now at San Francisco’s newest neighborhood, with another four scheduled to break ground this summer and five others on the way. By 2007, they will add 785 more units available for purchase, and another 745 for rent — a massive transformation for the once-barren railroad yard.

“This time next year and especially two years from now, it will really feel like the next new neighborhood of San Francisco,” said Mike Ghielmetti, president of Signature Properties which has completed one condo project, is building another, and is closing escrow this month on a third parcel slated for condo development, all in Mission Bay. “From an urban-planning standpoint, it’s a very walkable and livable community,” he said. “It seems so simple, but it’s actually pretty rare.”

Fresh residential development is significant not only because it adds critical mass to the burgeoning neighborhood — anchored with retail, including Safeway, Borders Books and Amici’s Pizza — but also because it adds to the city’s anemic stock of new housing.

Projects now under way:

  • Signature Properties is driving piles at 235 Berry St. This 99-unit condo development at Fourth and Berry streets will be similar to Signature’s first Mission Bay neighboring development at 255 Berry St., albeit slightly smaller. The 235 Berry project is slated for completion in summer or fall of 2006.
  • Mercy Housing’s Mission Creek Senior Community is under construction now at Fourth and Berry streets and should be completed by December. The 140-unit complex will be rented to low-income seniors and house a new branch of the San Francisco library on the ground floor. Residents will begin moving in January 2006.
  • AvalonBay Communities recently completed the pile work for its Avalon Bay II market-rate rental community at Fourth and King streets. The 313-unit complex, which will have a 16-story tower and a seven-story midrise component, is slated for completion in early 2007, with some units becoming available in late 2006. The complex will have an indoor basketball court, rock climbing wall and other amenities.

“The two communities will be operated together, so we wanted to try something different,” said AvalonBay’s Senior Vice President of Development Steve Wilson, confirming mass excavation will begin in two weeks.

Added AvalonBay Construction Manager Duane Carlson: “This project will be another crown jewel for us.”

This summer even more work is slated.

Urban Housing Corp., a division of Marcus & Millichap Companies, expects to break ground July 1 on a 194-unit rental complex. The property, located at 355 Berry Street, will be as tall as six stories and is slated for completion May 2007.

Opus West Corp. expects to break ground on a seven-story building this summer at 325 Berry St. The 110-unit condo development will be market rate and is slated for completion in 2006, with occupancy slated just before the new year.

Signature Properties will close escrow on a third parcel this month and plans to break ground there this summer. The 16-story tower will have 260 units and should be completed during the spring of 2007.

Said Signature’s Ghielmetti: “Once we close, we like to move pretty quickly.”

Fall construction will include two Redevelopment Agency sites on Berry Street — developers will be selected this June — and the 236-unit rental project by the Related Companies.

Bosa Development Corp., which owns seven parcels south of the channel, will break ground on its first complex, with 98 condos, this fall. It will break ground on a neighboring 319-unit condo complex in 2007, and then develop one parcel a year.

IntraCorp is also progressing with its plans. The Canada-based company recently acquired a parcel across the street from Opus West on the 300 block of Berry Street. The group plans to break ground on its 275 condo project — divided into 17. 7 and 6 story towers, this February.

The final residential parcel — located between Mission Rock and China Basin Street on Fourth Street — was recently acquired up by the Fingers Companies.

The surprise bid by the Houston-based luxury home developers jolted others already developing at Mission Bay who also aggressively pursued the parcel.

“We really wanted it. It’s urban, it’s infill, it’s entitled,” said Dan Deibel, director of development for Urban Housing. “We love the area. The future of S.F. is shaping up right there.”

With Fingers grabbing the last parcel, allocation of sites for private-sector residential development is now complete. The San Francisco Redevelopment Agency controls an additional nine parcels south of the channel, but can’t proceed with plans to develop affordable housing until neighboring market-rate projects, like those by Bosa, receive building permits.

Filed Under: Investors, Recent News

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